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Anne Peters
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Kentucky Derby pedigrees in 2020: Do they have the stamina to win the Derby?
| This year's Kentucky Derby is exceptional in that it's being run the first Saturday in September instead of the first Saturday in May. This is due to the Covid-19 Pandemic which is disrupted life around the world. Coming into this year's Derby is the inevitable heavy favorite Tiz The Law, who has already won the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes, something no Kentucky Derby has ever done before, and hopefully never will again. In Table 1, to the right, I've listed the top twenty Kentucky Derby qualifiers, listed in order of earned points. Listed are their last two starts with the distance noted to see how these horses have progressed over the summer. In normal years, the Kentucky Derby is the first time three-year-olds have run 10 furlongs and usually, the UAE Derby, run at 9.5 furlongs is the longest prep race. This year, Tiz the Law has already proven himself at the 10 furlongs distance by winning the Travers Stakes at Saratoga, and other Derby candidates Caracaro and Max Player ran second and third behind him in that race, at that distance. Tiz the Law had previously won the Belmont Stakes, but this year the race was won at a farcical nine furlongs, instead of its traditional twelve furlongs. So far, he is the only contender who has won at the Kentucky Derby distance. Tiz the Law is from the first crop of his sire Constitution, who was the #2 freshman sire last year behind American Pharoah. American Pharoah won't have a starter in this year's Derby, but in addition to Constitution, three other first crop sires will. These include Honor Code (sire of Honor A. P. and Max Player), Liam's Map (sire of Rushie) and Karakontie (JPN) (sire of Sole Volante). In Table 1, I've listed the Average Winning Distance (AWD) of the progeny of each sire and dam of Derby contenders, and then their combined averages to get a value for their featured offspring. I've put an asterisk next to the first-year sires AWDs because these are more changeable than proven sires with more starters and winners. Constitution's current AWD is 6.92 furlongs, but this number looks surely to increase over the next year. Tiz the Law has already won at 10 furlongs and is one of six black-type stakes winners for Constitution, whose own sire Tapit, is a proven classic sire of three Belmont Stakes winners. Tapit has the highest AWD of any sire in this group (7.60) as sire of Enforceable. Bernardini, sire of Art Collector, has the next highest progeny AWD, 7.51. Besides Tapit, there are several other proven sires of classic winners represented by Derby contenders this year. Uncle Mo, who got Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist in his first crop, is the sire of two in the potential Derby field, King Guillermo and Caracaro. Pioneerof the Nile, who previously sired Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, has Thousand Words in the field. It's worth noting that King Guillermo is out of the mare Slow Sand, who has the highest progeny AWD of any mare in this group, with 9.94. With King Guillermo's sire Uncle Mo's progeny AWD at 7.42, this gives King Guillermo a potential AWD (the average of their sire and dam) of 8.68, the highest of any runner in this group. Attachment Rate, with a parental average of 7.84 is the second highest in this group. Sole Volante's dam has the second highest progeny AWD of 8.69, followed by Rushie's dam with 8.25. Tiz the Law has stood head and shoulders above the three-year-olds
so far this year so it would be surprising if he were upset in this race, but
the Kentucky Derby traffic jam could take its toll as it has in the past. This
year's Derby field will be unique because it will include more proven middle distance
horses, since the runners with distance limitations will likely have been weeded
out by September. An early May Derby field often includes more speed horses praying
they can stretch out. I don't think Authentic is the one to pull the upset simply
because his pedigree doesn't suggest he's up to the distance, being by Into Mischief
out of a mare by Mr. Greeley. Art Collector certainly has a more stamina-oriented
pedigree, by Bernardini out of a mare by Distorted Humor. Of the rest, who knows?
It's been a topsy-turvy racing season and anything seems possible. Copyright by Anne Peters 2020. |
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