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Anne Peters
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Kentucky Derby pedigrees in 2019: Do they have the stamina to win the Derby?
| Last year I was very clear that I didn't think Justify or any of the other Scat Daddy colts entered in the 2018 Kentucky Derby had a chance because Scat Daddy just didn't have the stamina to pass on to create a classic colt. Since Justify won not only the Derby but swept the Triple Crown, obviously I miscalculated, and the answer is that I discounted the stamina that had to be coming through his dam. This year I hope to be vindicated. I really like both of the top two contenders (by Derby points), Tacitus and Omaha Beach. Tacitus is one of five runners whose parents' combined average winning distance is over 8.00 furlongs, which strongly suggests more stamina than the average runner. Tacitus' pedigree is of the highest class, being by Tapit, who has sired three Belmont Stakes winners, and out of the champion racemare Close Hatches. Her sire, First Defence was a high class sprinter/miler by Unbridled's Song out of the top sprint mare Honest Lady, herself by Seattle Slew out of Toussaud. Pedigrees don't get much better. Omaha Beach's pedigree is also of the highest class, with a twist. He's by War Front, a great international sire whose reputation has been made almost exclusively on turf at shorter, non-classic distances. Omaha Beach's dam, Charming, had previously produced the outstanding filly, Grade-1 winner Take Charge Brandi. Charming is also bred in the purple, being by Seeking the Gold (with that Buckpasser stamina) out of the amazing runner and producer, Take Charge Lady by Dehere. It's worth noting that Take Charge Lady is also the dam of the good runner and sire Take Charge Indy, whose son Long Range Toddy is a contender as well. The other contenders with high stamina numbers as calculated here are Plus Que Parfait (by the turf stayer Point of Entry out of an Awesome Again mare), War of Will (another War Front out of a mare by Sadler's Wells), Tax (by Arch out of a mare by Giant's Causeway) and the Japanese horse Master Fencer (JPN) (by Just a Way out of Sezy Zamurai by Deputy Minister). With the exception of Tacitus, all of these pedigrees have a heavy turf bias, but despite that, these boys are doing very well on dirt, thank you very much. On the other hand, there are a few favorites that I think just don't have a prayer of staying the distance based on their pedigree. Vekoma is by the top class sire Candy Ride out of a Speightstown mare. While I love Candy Ride (and especially his son Gun Runner) he gets more of a miler type, and that cross of Speightstown really shortens things up. By My Standards is by the surprisingly sprinter/miler Goldencents out of a mare by the speed-bred Muqtarib (Gone West/Shicklah by The Minstrel). Improbable is by City Zip out of a mare by A.P. Indy. His dam's sire is all class, but I don't think it can drag a City Zip to victory at a mile and a quarter. So take a look beyond the speed numbers and consider what makes a classic pedigree. After all, that stamina has to come from somewhere. *Update May 5, 2019. At the time I wrote this, Country House was not among the top 20 by points being considered for the Kentucky Derby. With the defection of several runners (including Signalman), he became eligible, and ultimately the winner via the Disqualification of first place finisher Maximum Security. Country House is by Preakness winner Lookin At Lucky out of a mare by Breeders' Cup Mile winner War Chant, second dam by the top turf stayer Sky Classic. Lookin At Lucky hasn't sired another American classic winner, but his champion son Accelerate won at 1 1/4 miles on more than one occasion. I speculated Country House capable of winning at least to 9.5 furlongs, a little short of the Derby distance, but with stamina numbers from his sire (7.52f.) and dam (7.64f.) that put him above average for this field. For fun, it's worth noting that Country House is inbred 4x4 to the great Canadian broodmare No Class, second dam of Smart Strike (sire of Lookin At Lucky) and dam of Sky Classic (sire of Country House's second dam, Shooting Party). I had doubts about Maximum Security's pedigree and stamina but as many a front runner has done, he managed to steal a big race normally considered beyond his expected ability by coasting in front on a very sloppy track, staying clean and out of trouble. His inexperience caused him to veer out and cause the infraction that led to his disqualification. If he gets a similar track in the Preakness, he could take that one as well. Copyright by Anne Peters 2019. |
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