Anne Peters
 
 

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Anne Peters
P.O. Box 3926
Midway, KY 40347
(859) 846 - 9794
pedgoddess
@yahoo.com

 

 


Pedigree Theories and Selection Techniques

Kentucky Derby pedigrees in 2018: Do they have the stamina to win the Derby?
  

I have a pretty good record picking Kentucky Derby winners the last few years, so I'm going to stick my neck out in print this year. While the final preps have yet to be run, the field is starting to shape up based on what I would expect from their pedigrees. Those with more stamina in their pedigrees are moving to the top.

Even before points are awarded, I start sorting out the contenders based on their juvenile form, and continue throughout the winter/spring as they run through the prep races. Any horse by a proven classic winner (Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont Stakes) or by a proven sire of a classic winner automatically gets an early 9 furlong designation. If the sire is more of a speed influence, like More Than Ready, Into Mischief, Speightstown or City Zip, that shortens up the classic potential accordingly and I might be thinking more in line of a good 7 or 8 furlong runner. Keep in mind that there are stamina influences who are not ideal American classic influences either due to maturity or surface issues. Giant's Causeway has earned his reputation for passing on stamina in large part to his turf runners. Ghostzapper, as classy as he is, tends to get runners who might not be as mature as we'd like in the spring of their sophomore year.

Then I look at the broodmare's side, especially her sire. If she's by a proven classic winner or classic sire, she adds to the horse's distance potential. Likewise, if the broodmare sire is a speed influence, it shortens up the potential.

Don't even mention "dosage" or I will do my best to reach through this screen and smack you upside your head.

As an added bit of data, I'm including the average winning distance (AWD) of progeny by the sire and out of the dam, and the average of the parents to get an expected average winning distance. AWDs can be deceiving, since there is a bias to speed, so you have to take them with a grain of salt. Most horses break their maidens at shorter distances, and most racing in the U.S. is at 6 furlongs. A horse that consistently sires runners that want to go long will wind up with a progeny AWD of at least 7 furlongs, and a few will have an average over 8 furlongs. Those are the true stamina influences, even though the average of 8 furlongs on the surface seems to suggest a miler type.

Last year's champion 2-year-old, Good Magic, was by Preakness winner Curlin, who is proving himself a stamina influence, and is the sire of Belmont winner Palace Malice, Preakness winner Exaggerator, and Travers winner Keen Ice. Good Magic's dam was a miler and she's by the brilliant Hard Spun, a free-running speed horse whose tons of game carried him out to 9 furlongs. That shortened my evaluation of Good Magic's best distance to 9 furlongs instead of a solid 10. He was third in his 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes-G2, which was disappointing but he should improve off that. He may prove my estimate wrong but I'm willing to bet he won't get the Derby distance on the first Saturday in May.

His chief rival, Bolt d'Oro, however, has a different profile. His sire Medaglia d'Oro loved 10 furlongs and although he's sired a wide range of performers, his runners include Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra. Bolt d'Oro's dam is by A.P. Indy, a classic winner himself and sire of Preakness winner Bernardini and Belmont winner Rags to Riches. Bolt d'Oro's dam Globe Trot won 3 races, all at a mile. She's has one foal before Bolt d'Oro, the consumate sprinter Sonic Mule (by Distorted Humor), but that's not holding Bolt d'Oro back, since he's already won out to 8 1/2 furlongs in the San Felipe-G2 with no signs of hitting the wall yet.

If I like Bolt d'Oro, I similarly like Enticed, who is also by Medaglia d'Oro out of a mare by a son of A.P. Indy. Enticed's dam is by Mineshaft, a 10 furlong lover and sire of stamina. Enticed's dam, It's Tricky, won the C.C.A. Oaks-G1, which used to be a filly equivalent of the Belmont Stakes and run at 1 1/2 miles but that was before NYRA messed with tradition. It is now run at 1 1/8 miles so doesn't represent stamina like it used to, but still stamps It's Tricky as a decent router. I actually prefer Enticed over Bolt d'Oro in this match up and right now, he's my overall choice for the big one in May.

Bravazo is a close relative to Preakness winner Oxbow, who was also by Awesome Again and out of a mare by Cee's Tizzy, second dam by a son of Seattle Slew. Bravazo's dam, Tiz o'Gold was a sprinter/miler and her sire Cee's Tizzy won out to a mile but placed at 10 furlongs. More importantly, he sired the top 10 furlongs horse Tiznow. The next dam is by Slew o' Gold. Awesome Agains usually improve with age and while Bravazo is on a relatively early track, he might need more time to tackle a longer distance.

Other horses that I think have the best Derby pedigrees include Magnum Moon (although he may not have enough experience), Free Drop Billy, Quip and McKinzie. I have a sentimental attachment to Flameaway (dead game, versatile, great name, great owner and a personal connection to his stakes-winning half sister) but don't think that Scat Daddy is going to take him the whole route. For the same reason, I can't root for Combatant, or the current hype horse Justify, or last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner Mendelssohn, all by Scat Daddy.

Copyright by Anne Peters 2018.

The Contenders (as of March 22, 2018) listed by Derby points
Horse
(sire/dam's sire)
last start
my guestimate to distance ability
Sire's progeny
(AWD)
Dam's progeny
(AWD)
Parents combined
(AWD)
Bold d'Oro
(Medaglia d'Oro/
A.P. Indy)
1st San Felipe S.-G2 (8.5f.)
10f.
7.68
7.00
7.34
Enticed
(Medaglia d'Oro/
Mineshaft)
1st Gotham S.-G3 (8.5f.)
10f.
7.68
7.50
7.59
Bravazo
(Awesome Again/
Cee's Tizzy)
1st Risen Star S.-G2 (8.5f.)
9f.
7.44
8.17
7.81
Promises Fulfilled
(Shackleford/
Marquetry)
1st Fountain of Youth S.-G2 (8.5f.)
9f.
6.62
6.34
6.48
Magnum Moon
(Malibu Moon/
Unbridled's Song)
1st Rebel S.-G2 (8.5f.)
10f.
7.09
7.10
7.10
Quip
(Distorted Humor/
Indian Charlie)
1st Tampa Bay Derby (8.5f.)
9f.
7.12
7.67
7.40
McKinzie
(Street Sense/
Petionville)
2nd San Felipe S.-G2
9f.
7.26
7.63
7.45
Good Magic
(Curlin/Hard Spun)
3rd Fountain of Youth S.-G2
9f.
7.55
7.83
7.69
Solomini
(Curlin/Storm Cat
2nd Rebel S.-G2
9f.
7.55
8.64
8.10
Flameaway
(Scat Daddy/
Fusaichi Pegasus)
2nd Tampa Bay Derby-G2
9f.
7.15
7.07
7.11
Firenze Fire
(Poseidon's Warrior/ Langfuhr
4th Gotham S.-G3
7f.
6.35
6.75
6.55

Free Drop Billy
(Union Rags/ Giant's Causeway)

3rd Gotham S.-G3
10f.
7.20
9.42
8.31
Blended Citizen
(Proud Citizen/ Langfuhr)
1st Jeff Ruby S.-G3A (8.5f.)
9f.
6.98
7.92
7.45
Combatant
(Scat Daddy/
Boundary)
3rd Rebel S.-G2
8f.
7.15
7.05
7.10
Snapper Sinclair
(City Zip/
Yes It's True)
2nd Risen Star S.-G2
8f.
6.54
7.25
6.90
Old Time Revival
(Brethren/ Congaree)
2nd Gotham S.-G3
8f.
5.83
6.33
6.08
Strike Power
(Speightstown/
Medaglia d'Oro)
2nd Fountain of Youth S.-G2
8f.
6.48
6.17
6.33
Instilled Regard
(Arch/ Forestry)
4th Risen Star S.-G2
9f.
7.88
8.41
8.15
Catholic Boy
(More Than Ready/
Bernardini)
2nd Sam F Davis S.-G3
8f.
7.03
8.33
7.68
My Boy Jack
(Creative Cause/
Mineshaft)
1st Southwest S.-G3
9f.
6.87
7.50
7.19
Audible
(Into Mischief/
Gilded Time)
1st Holy Bull S.-G2
8f.
6.69
8.13
7.41
Greyvitos
(Malibu Moon/ Najran)
1st Springboard Mile
9f.
7.09
6.76
7.38
Kanthaka
(Jimmy Creed/
Noonmark)
3rd San Felipe S.-G2
8f.
5.97
7.00
6.49
Lombo
(Greydar/
Johannesburg)
unpl San Felipe S.-G2
8f.
6.47
6.70
6.59
Noble Indy
(Take Charge Indy/
Storm Boot)
3rd Risen Star S.-G2
9f.
6.75
6.67
6.71
World of Trouble
(Kantharos/
Valid Expectations)
3rd Tampa Bay Derby-G2
8f.
6.23
6.02
6.13
Pony Up
(Aikenite/ A.P. Indy)
2nd Jeff Ruby S.-G2
9f.
7.07
7.98
7.53
Threeandfourpence
(War Front/
Sadler's Wells)
2nd Patton S. (IRE)
9f.
7.36
6.57
6.97
Mendelssohn
(Scat Daddy/ Tricky Creek
Patton S. (IRE)
8f.
7.15
7.64
7.40
Gronkowski
(Lonhro (AUS)/
Lookin At Lucky)
race (IRE)
9f.
6.82
8.00
7.41
Justify
(Scat Daddy/
Ghostzapper)
AOC (8f.)
9f.
7.15
7.86
7.51