Anne Peters
 

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Anne Peters
P.O. Box 3926
Midway, KY 40347
(859) 846 - 9794
pedgoddess
@yahoo.com

 

 

 

PedigreeHead

Freshman Sires and Predictions

Past Year Predictions

2018 Freshman Sires
My picks and end of year results:
Verrazano - #8 by earnings, #7 by winners (13)
Goldencents - #2 by earnings, #1 by winners (29)
Cairo Prince - #3 by earnings, #2 by winners (19)
Strong Mandate - #18 by earnings, #18 by winners (9)
Itsmyluckyday - #19 by earnings, #7 by winners (13)
Will Take Charge - #5 by earnings, #6 by winners (14)

and no, the 2018 Leading Freshman Sire, Cross Traffic was nowhere on my radar.

2017 Freshman Sires
My picks and end of year results:
Shanghai Bobby - #4 by earnings; #3 by # stakes winners
Violence - #2 by earnings; #1 by # winners and stakes winners (tie)
Overanalyze - #1 by earnings; #1 by stakes winners (tie); #2 by winners
Liaison - #22 by earnings; 2 stakes winners
Flat Out - #8 by earnings; #5 by # winners
2016 Freshman Sires
My picks and end of year results:
Union Rags - #2 by earnings; sire of 3 SWS, 2 G1 winners
Stay Thirsty - #6 tied by # of winners (17)
To Honor and Serve - #12 tied # of winners (13)
Shackleford - #1 tied by # of winners (20)
Bodemeister - #3 by earnings; #8 tied by # of winners (15)

2015 Freshman Sires
My picks
Uncle Mo - 2015 Leading Freshman Sire by earnings; #1 by winners (28)
Trappe Shot
Sidney's Candy
General Quarters

2014 Freshman Sires
My picks
Munnings - #4 by earnings, #2 by winners (27), #3 by stakes winners (3)
Blame
Tale of Ekati
Line of David
Concord Point - 2 stakes winners

2013 Freshman Sires
My picks
Kodiak Kowboy
Einstein (BRZ)
Pioneerof The Nile
Sea The Stars (IRE)

2012 Freshman Sire
My picks - featured in Thoroughbred Times March 10, 2012

War Pass
Majestic Warrior
Ready's Image
Horse Greeley
First Defence

2011 Leading Freshman Sire was Scat Daddy.  I was the only panelist on the 2011 Thoroughbred Times Freshman Sire Contest who picked him.

 

 

2019 Freshman leaders by earnings (top 5) thru 11/2/19earnings $
American Pharoah (KY)$2,347,482
Constitution (KY) $1,690,388
Palace Malice (KY) $1,420,586
Liam's Map (KY)$1,164,417
Competitive Edge (KY)$1,099,056
Leaders by stakes winners
(black type)
 
American Pharoah (KY)4 - Four Wheel Drive-G2T
     Sweet Melania-G2
     Maven-G3 FR
     Another Miracle
Competitive Edge (KY)4 - Majestic Gold
     My Italian Rabbi
      Fierce Lady
      Sassy Seneca
Constitution (KY) 4 - Amalfi Sunrise-G2,
     By Your Side-G3
     Independence Hall-G3
     Tiz The Law-G1
Race Day (KY) 4 - Consultora
      Gee She Sparkles
      Mom's Red Lipstick
      Race Home
Fast Anna (KY)3 - Been Studying Her
      Fast Scene,
      Scotty Boy
Karakontie (JPN) (KY)2 - Kenzai Warrior-G3 ENG
     Karak
Khozan (FL)2 - Airbus (PER)
     Liam's Lucky Charm
Lea (KY)2 - Muskoka Gold
     Vast
Liam's Map (KY)2 - Wicked Whisper-G1
      Basin
Palace Malice (KY)2 - Structor-G1T
     Crystalle
Summer Front (KY)2 - Fighting Seabee-G3T
     Speaktomeofsummer
Bakken (ALB) 1 - Bare Back Jack
Boat Trip (CA)1 - Bettor Trip Nick
Bourbon Courage (MD1 - Raging Whiskey
Commissioner (KY) 1 - Two Last Words
Daredevil (KY)1 - Deviant
Dramedy (OK) 1 - Southgate
Frac Daddy (ONT) 1 - Owlette
Fury Kapcori (FL)1 - High On Gin
Golden Lad (MD)1 - Hello Beautiful
Hangover Kid (MD)1 - Miss J McKay
Palace (KY)1 - Chacha Real Smooth
Tapiture (KY) 1 - Sky of Hook
Wicked Strong (KY)1 - Wicked Runner
Leaders by individual winners# wnrs / # black type sws
Tapiture (KY)21 / 1
American Pharoah (KY)20 / 4
Constitution (KY) 19 / 4
Wicked Strong (KY) 17 / 1
Competitive Edge (KY) 16 / 4
Bayern (KY) 14
Khozan (FL)14 / 2
Palace Malice (KY) 13 / 2
Commissioner (KY)12 / 1
Honor Code (KY)12
Liam's Map (KY)12 / 2
The Big Beast (FL)12
Carpe Diem (KY)11
Fast Anna (KY)11 / 3
Palace (KY) 11 / 1
Race Day (KY)11 / 4
Karakontie (KY) 9 / 2
Summer Front (KY)9 / 2
Tonalist (KY)9
Daredevil (KY)8 / 1
Mr Speaker (KY)8
Secret Circle (KY)8
Frac Daddy (ONT)7 / 1
Hampton Court (AUS)7
Lea (KY) 7 / 2
Bahamian Squall (FL)6
Bakken (ALB)6 / 1
Console (PR)6
Danza (KY) 6
Fury Kapcori (FL)6 / 1
Golden Lad (MD)6 / 1
Bourbon Courage (MD)5 / 1
Lent (BC) 5
Chitu (FL)4
Conveyance (KY) 4
Curlin to Mischief (CA) 4
Imagining (MD)4
Majestic City (NY)4
Sky Kingdom (KY)4
Govenor Charlie (CA)3
Jack Milton (KY)3
Medal Count (KY)3
Micromanage (NY)3
Seek Again (ARG)3
Silver Max (ONT)3
We Miss Artie (KY)3
Alpha Bettor (died)2
Blueskiesnrainbows (OK) 2
Dramedy (OK) 2 / 1
Young Brian (FL)2
Admiral Kitten (SAF)1
Animal Style (IN)1
Boat Trip (CA)1 / 1
Call Me George (LA) 1
Chart Topper (ONT) 1
Declassify (ALB) 1
Global Power1
Golden Ticket (NY)1
Gold For Cash1
Hangover Kid (MD)1 / 1
I Spent It (OK)1
Japan (NY) 1
Katz My Song (FL)1
Last Gunfighter (Died)1
Lotsa Mischief1
Midnight Crooner (OK) 1
Mr. Rancho Vista (WA) 1
Normandy Invasion (KY)1
Pataky Kid (IN)1
Rousing Sermon (CA)1
Tiz a Minister (CA)1
Vaporetto (PR)1
Xixixi (PA)1
 
Freshman Sires of 2019
Click here to read my evaluation of the freshman sires whose first 2-year-olds will be debuting this year. It's a large and interesting group. The accompanying table gives an overview that shows how many mares each one has been bred to for the last 3 years, as well as their first crop yearling average from last year. Those numbers will given you an indication of how popular they are commercially, and which ones might be siring the better-looking offspring.

Spoiler Alert! My predictions on who will end the year at the top of the Freshman Sire List are:

American Pharoah
Daredevil
Palace
Liam's Map
Bayern
2018 FRESHMAN SIRES (1st 2yos in 2018) (thru Dec 31, 2018) My discussion on Freshman Sires can be read here.
2018 Freshman leaders by earnings (top 5)$
Cross Traffic (KY)$2,115,603
Goldencents (KY) $1,396,758
Cairo Prince (KY) $1,254,485
Central Banker (NY) $1,029,580
Will Take Charge (KY)$   972,222
Leaders by individual winners# wnrs / # black type sws
Goldencents (KY) 29 / 2
Cairo Prince (KY)19 / 2
Cross Traffic (KY) 18 / 5
Revolutionary (KY) 16 / 1
Noble Mission (KY) 14
Will Take Charge (KY) 14 / 1
He's Had Enough (FL) 13
Itsmyluckyday (KY) 13
Verrazano (KY)13 / 2
Can The Man (KY)12
Fed Biz (KY) 12 / 1
Flashback (KY)11
Mucho Macho Man (KY)11 / 1
Atreides (KY) 10 / 2
Central Banker (NY)10 / 2
Drill (FL)10 / 1
Tritap (Died, MD)10 / 1
Handsome Mike (FL)9
Mark Valeski (KY)9 / 1
Strong Mandate (KY)9
Honorable Dillon (NY)8
Magician (IRE)8
Souper Speedy (ONT)8 / 2
Uncaptured (FL)8 / 3
Real Solution (LA)7
Shakin It Up (KY)7 / 1
Leaders by stakes winners
(black type)
 
Cross Traffic (KY)5 (Jaywalk-G1,
    Capocostello,
    Cross Dancer,     
    Dancin Shoes,
    Dame Plata)
Uncaptured (FL) 3 (Bye Bye J,
   Catherinethegreat-G3,
   Capture Your Dream)
Atreides (KY)2 (Sueno,
     Amynta)
Cairo Prince (KY)

2 (Cairo Cat-G3
     Giza Goddess)

Central Banker (NY)2 (Bankit,
    Sassy Agnes)
Goldencents (KY) 2 (Pickett,
    Silvercents)
Souper Speedy (ONT)2 (Blessed Two,
    Speedy Soul)
Verrazano (KY) 2 (Seek and Destroy,
    Stirling Drive)
Abstraction (NM) 1 (Hustle Up)
Amanecer de Oro (LA)1 (Cabo's Rumor)
Apriority (LA) 1 (Atchata)
Bandbox (MD)1 (Follow the Dog)
Boisterous (CA)1 (Kookie Gal)
Cajun Breeze (FL) 1 (Cajun Firecracker)
Central Banker (NY)1 (Bankit)
Drill (FL)1 (Drillit)
Fed Biz (KY)1 (Zenden)
Guilt Trip (LA) 1 (Goodprofit)
Harlan's Pure (PR) 1 (Ledoux)
Lakerville (CA) 1 (Lakerball)
Mark Valeski (KY) 1 (Backtohisroots)
Merit Man (CA)1 (Give Me a Hint)
Mister Lucky Cat (OK)1 (Starling)
Mucho Macho Man (KY)1 (Mucho Gusto-G3)
Revolutionary (KY) 1 (Maiden Beauty)
Shakin It Up (KY) 1 (B. B. Dude)
Tritap (died, MD)1 (My Star Potential)
Well Spelled (PA) 1 (Well Graced)
Will Take Charge (KY)1 (Kim K)
 

FRESHMAN SIRES 2017 (thru December 31, 2017)

Leaders by earnings (top 5) 
Overanalyze (KY) $1,646,764
Violence (KY)$1,556,274
Take Charge Indy (S.KOR)$1,049,751
Shanghai Bobby (KY)$   952,912
Animal Kingdom (KY)$   930,577
Leaders by individual winners# wnrs / # black type sws
Violence (KY) 32 / 4
Overanalyze (KY) 26 / 4
Take Charge Indy (S.KOR) 23 / 2
Jimmy Creed (KY) 20 / 2
Flat Out (KY) 19 / 1
Graydar (KY) 15
Power Broker (KSA) 15
Shanghai Bobby (KY)15 / 3
Treasure Beach (GB) (FL)14
Justin Phillip (KY) 13 / 1
Paynter (KY)13 / 1
Morning Line (KY) 12 / 1
New Year's Day (KY)12
Soldat (FL) 12
Leaders by stakes winners
(black type)
 
Overanalyze (KY)  4 (Analyze the Odds,
       Analyze This Jet,
       Evaluator,
       Suzette)
Violence (KY)   4 (Barry Lee,
      Buy Sell Hold,
      Cosmic Burst,
      Encumbered)
Animal Kingdom (KY)  3 (Sunny Skies,
      Continental Divide,
      Untamed Domain-G2T)
Shanghai Bobby (KY)  3 (Gotta Go,
      March X Press,
      Mr. Pete)
Declaration of War (KY)  3 (Actress-G3 IRE,
      Eirene ENG,
      Speed Franco-SWT)
Jimmy Creed (KY)  2 (Spectator-G2,
       Star Galicia (PAN))
Liaison (KY)   2 (Bronx Beauty,
       Night Strike)
Point of Entry (KY)  2 (Analyze It-G3T,       Glamanation)
Take Charge Indy (S.KOR)  2 (Indy's Lady
      Take Charge Paula)
Big Lightning (ALB)  1 (Emma Jean Too)
Buffum (MD)  1 (Clever Mind)
Cold Harbor (ONT)  1 (Eskiminzin)
Currency Swap (FL)  1 (Silver Bay)
Data Link (KY)  1 (Stardoza)
E Z Effort (AZ)   1 (Fortified Effort)
Flat Out (KY)  1 (Pacific Gale)
Fort Larned (KY)  1 (Blonde Bomber)
Freedom Child (MD)  1 (Limited View)
Indian Evening (CA)  1 (Kimberlea K)
Justin Phillip (KY)  1 (What a Catch)
Morning Line (KY)  1 (Surrender Now)
Orb (KY)   1 (Orbolution)
Paynter (KY)  1 (Renaisance Frolic)
Poseidon's Warrior (FL)  1 (Firenze Fire-G1)
Smiling Tiger (CA)  1 (Spiced Perfection)
Trinniberg (NY)  1 (Aqua Bel Sar)
 
FRESHMAN SIRE PICKS FOR 2017 (March 11, 2017)
I just uploaded my predictions for the leading freshman sires, those stallions who entered stud in Kentucky 2014 with their first crop racing as 2-year-olds in 2017. The article goes into extensive detail on each of the stallions from this Kentucky sire class, with a table of statistics showing number of mares bred and yearling averages/ medians to help support the analysis. As usual, my freshman sires picks lean toward stallions who were good 2-year-old runners themselves, and spoiler alert, for those who don't want to read the entire article, here are my top 5 selections.

Shanghai Bobby
Violence
Overanalyze
Liaison
Flat Out
FRESHMAN SIRES 2016 (thru December 31, 2016)
Leaders by earnings 
Dialed In (KY)$1,544,836
Union Rags (KY)$1,457,070
Bodemeister (KY) $   993,948
Tapizar (KY) $   962,057
Gemologist (KY) $   920,216
Leaders by individual winners 
Hansen (SKOR) 20
Maclean's Music (KY) 20
Shackleford (KY) 19
Dialed In (KY) 19
Union Rags (KY)18
Creative Cause (KY)17
Stay Thirsty (KY)17
Astrology (KY) 15
Bodemeister (KY)15
Tapizar (KY) 15
Gemologist (KY) 14
The Factor (KY)14
To Honor and Serve (KY)13
Algorigthms (KY) 12
Brilliant Speed (KY/died 2016) 11
Leaders by stakes winners
(black type)
 
Dialed In (KY)  3
Union Rags (KY)   3
Astrology (KY)  2
Dominus (KY)  2
Gemologist (KY)   2
Maclean's Music (KY)  2
The Factor (KY)   2
Algorithms (KY)   1
Atta Boy Roy (WA)   1
Bodemeister (KY)  1
Brilliant Speed (KY/died 2016)  1
Bullet Train (GB)   1
Caleb's Posse (KY)  1
Creative Cause (KY)  1
Gattopardo (WV)   1
Hansen (S KOR)   1
Mission Impazible (NY)   1
Noble's Promise (IN)  1
Shackleford (KY)   1
Signature Red (ONT)  1
Skipshot (KY)   1
Stay Thirsty (KY)  1
Tapizar (KY)   1
To Honor and Serve (KY)  1
 
2016 FRESHMAN SIRE SELECTIONS (March 8, 2016) This year's freshman sires, those with their first 2-year-olds hitting the track, are headlined by some of the darlings at last year's yearling sales: Bodemeister, The Factor, Union Rags, Tapizar, Jersey Town, Creative Cause, Shackleford and To Honor and Serve. They all have 2015 yearling averages of $75,000 or over. When I make my freshman sire choices, I like a horse who showed good form at 2, but could run into the middle distances at 3, and ran for most of the season. A classy pedigree and no major comformation issues helps, too. Union Rags seems to have the best all-around resume, being the best East Coast juvenile who grew up to win the Belmont Stakes. He's also a well-bred horse (by Dixie Union, dam by Gone West) and a striking individual. Stay Thirsty was G1-placed at 2, won the Gotham and Travers at 3, and the Cigar Mile at 4. With a top pedigree (Bernardini/Storm Bird) and all-around good looks, he's got a license to succeed. To Honor and Serve was a good late season 2-year-old, won the Cigar Mile at 3, and was a top older male at 4. His pedigree is A+ (Bernardini/ Deputy Minister) and he's a big, handsome horse. Shackleford is my wild card choice. He was a winner at 2, and was a brilliantly fast, gutsy horse, winning the Preakness at 3 and the Met Mile at 4. By Forestry, a highly underrated sire, his dam Oatsee is a true blue hen by Unbridled, and is from the same family as sires Gone West and Tentam. Finally, it's hard to ignore the hype that followed Bodemeister, and the class of mares it attracted. An extremely talented, well-bred (Empire Maker/Storm Cat) horse, he was unraced at 2, but the size and quality of his first book of mares could carry him to early success.
LEADING FRESHMAN SIRES IN 2015
I picked Uncle Mo to be the Leading Freshman Sire of 2015 and he did not disappoint. He was the leader by earnings, by number of winners and by number of stakes winners (see lists below). His top colt Nyquist, winner of 3 G1 races including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, will undoubtedly be named Champion 2-Year-Old Male of 2015. Unfortunately, my other choices (Trappe Shot, Sidney's Candy, General Quarters) didn't fare as well, but we'll see how they do with their 3-year-olds in 2016. I was surprised to see Twirling Candy and Archarcharch right up there among the leading freshman sires, but good for them. Girolamo might have been the biggest surprise of all, with his first crop sired when he was standing in New York, but now he's in Kentucky and standing at $15,000, 3 times what he stood for last year.
FRESHMEN SIRES (thru Dec 31, 2015)
Leaders by earnings 
Uncle Mo (KY)$3,675,388
Twirling Candy (KY)$1,167,144
Archarcharch (KY)$1,001,686
Girolamo (KY)$1,000,000
First Dude (FL)$   997,148
Leaders by # of winners 
Uncle Mo (KY)28
Twirling Candy (KY)25
Wilburn (KY)21
Girolamo (KY)19
First Dude (FL)16
Archarcharch (KY)15
Paddy O'Prado (KY)15
Big Drama (FL)13
Cape Blanco (IRE) (JPN)13
Leaders by # stakes wnrs  
Uncle Mo (KY)7
Society's Chairman (ONT)3
Archarcharch (KY)2
EZ Dreamer (AZ)2
Giant Surprise (NY)2
Gone Astray (FL)2
Shame On Charlie (NM)2
Tizway (KY)2
Albertus Maximus (KY)1
American Lion (KY)1
Bank Heist (NY)1
Big Drama (FL)1
Cape Blanco (IRE) (JPN)1
Courageous Cat (NY)1
Crown of Thorns (FL)1
Custom For Carlos (LA)1
Exhi (ONT)1
First Dude (FL)1
Giant Oak ((KY)1
Girolamo (KY)1
Haynesfield (KY)1
Indygo Mountain (TX)1
Paddy O' Prado (KY)1
Wilburn (KY)1
MY PICKS FOR FRESHMAN SIRES IN 2015
Uncle Mo
has all the qualifications to be one of the leading freshman sires this year. He was the Champion 2-year-old himself, and was just a flat out brilliant race horse. He's by Indian Charlie, who specialized in precocious/speedy, his yearlings sold well last year, and he's going to have a lot of juvenile runners out there. Trappe Shot's yearlings sold remarkably well for his $10,000 stud fee, and he was a very fast horse by Tapit, both of which suggest early runners. I've always been impressed with Sidney's Candy, both as a horse with record-setting speed and great conformation. He's by Candy Ride, who sired Shared Belief, the champion juvenile a couple years back. I don't know how many 2-year-olds General Quarters will have from his first Florida-sired crop, but he was a horse with tremendous ability and is bred to run early, by Sky Mesa out of an Unbridled's Song mare.
LEADING FRESHMAN SIRES OF 2014
While I didn't expect to see Quality Road and Super Saver come on so quickly, it doesn't surprise me since both horses were very good racehorses with great pedigrees. I was pleased to see the good showing by Munnings, who I fully expected to do well with his first 2-year-olds: #2 by number of winners, #3 by number of stakes winners, and #4 by earnings. It's good to see Tale of Ekati rank high by number of winners, with 14. Concord Point got 2 stakes winners from his first crop and is a horse to pay attention to as the first good son of Tapit with runners.

FRESHMEN SIRES (thru December 31, 2014)
Leaders by earnings (top 5) 
Quality Road$1,572,480
Super Saver$1,547,113
Lookin At Lucky$1,417,098
Munnings$1,187,487
Majesticperfection$   895,341
Leaders by # of winners 
Lookin At Lucky29
Munnings 27
Majesticperfection20
Discreetly Mine19
Midshipman 19
Kantharos 18
Quality Road 18
Super Saver 16
Tale of Ekati14
Warrior's Reward 13
Leaders by # stakes wnrs 
Lookin At Lucky   4
Super Saver  4
Munnings  3
Temple City  3
Concord Point  2
Desert Party  2
Lantana Mob  2
Quality Road  2
Street Magician   2

MY FAVORITE FRESHMAN SIRES OF 2014
Among the stallions whose first crop will be racing in 2014, here are some of my favorites. I think Munnings has "leading freshman sire" written all over him. Fast and precocious himself, he's built for the part, and is from a strong sireline, being the first good son of Speightstown to stud in North America. Blame is a magnificent individual, and although his runners might not be as precocious as Munnings, he stands out as an outstanding runner by a very good sire from a great sire-making family going back to Rough Shod II. I liked Tale of Ekati when he was racing, and I still like him. He was a G2 winner at 2 and multiple G1 winner at 3, by Tale of the Cat, out of a Sunday Silence mare, from a great female family. Line of David impressed me with his good looks and is by Lion Heart, who was exported too soon. He is also from the immediate family of Mr. Prospector, which says a lot. Concord Point was one of the first sons of Tapit to stud and is a big, stout, handsome horse with a remarkably intense pedigree.
Kentucky Stud Fees 2019
New Stallions and Roster Changes for 2020
New Stallions and Roster Changes for 2019
Freshman Sires
Stallion Registers and Stallion Season Auctions

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