2020 introduces the first runners by stallions who entered stud in 2017. The
Kentucky stallions are not as glamorous as the 2016 gang headed up by American
Pharoah and Honor Code, or the 2018 class led by Arrogate and Gun Runner. Still,
the star of this stallion crop is a very good horse indeed: Frosted, who entered
stud at Darley at a fee of $50,000. California Chrome and Nyquist followed, both
at $40,000. Frosted and Nyquist both stand for $40,000 in 2020 and California
Chrome was sold to stand in Japan this year, much to the outrage of his huge fan
base. Was the sale premature? We'll find out soon. The Kentucky freshman sire
roster is listed to the right and a few observations are worth making before we
get into individual assesments. Take a quick look at the number of mares bred,
which is often more a function of what farm the horse stands at rather than his
particular merits. Because Darley tends to limit their stallions' books to about
150 mares, Frosted covered 156, and studmate Nyquist had 153, while less expensive
stallions at other farms covered more mares, like Exaggerator (162 mares), Outwork
(168), Vancouver (166) and the leader by this number, Speightster (174). Exaggerator,
Outwork and Speightster stand at WinStar which doesn't limit stallion books, nor
does Vancouver's home at Coolmore's Ashford Stud. These larger books will translate
into more 2-year-olds racing this year which should work in their favor, but only
if those 2-year-olds win races! Two years later, in 2019, the numbers shifted
a bit, as they always do for third-year sires competing with the younger sires
and more proven sires. Nyquist actually gained 3 mares, getting 156 mares, suggesting
that his foals were well received, and reflected in his yearling average of $226,625,
the highest for this group last year. Frosted by comparison got 144 mares in his
third year which is still good, and similarly his yearlings averaged slightly
less at $222,079, but still an excellent outcome. Speightster covered significantly
fewer mares but got a solid book of 124, and his yearlings averaged a strong $61,320
off a $10,000 fee. Surprisingly, one stallion in this class got more mares in
2019 than his first year, and that was Tamarkuz, who covered a disappointing 38
mares his first season. His foals must have impressed because he served 57 mares
in 2019 with a profitable yearling average of $65,474 off a $12,500 fee. Frosted
is a grey son of the fantastic sire Tapit out of the durable Grade 2 turf mare
Fast Cookie by Deputy Minister. A Darley homebred, he was a later-developing juvenile,
breaking his maiden at a mile and then second in the Remsen Stakes G1. He was
one of the better colts of his year at 3 although racing in the shadow of American
Pharoah. He won the Wood Memorial G1 and Pennsylvania Derby G2 and ran second
to Pharoah in the Belmont G1, ahead of Keen Ice, among other top placings. At
4, Frosted threw in a couple really brilliant performances in the Met Mile G1
(setting a new stakes record of 1:32.73) by 14 1/4 lengths, and a wire-to-wire
score in the Whitney Stakes-G1. Frosted is a striking individual, a big, strong
horse with a lot of class. His first yearlings sold well ($222,079 average) so
it looks like he's throwing good-looking individuals like himself. Although a
little later-maturing, it wouldn't be surprising to see him get good juveniles
with speedier mares. California Chrome is bred less than fashionably,
being by the modestly successful California sire Lucky Pulpit (by Pulpit) and
out of the winning mare Love The Chase by the good Maryland-based sire Not For
Love. Apparently he doesn't care because the flashy chestnut was a leading 2-year-old
in California then breezed magnificently through the Cali Derby preps, and convincing
wins in the Kentucky Derby G1 and Preakness G1. Although he finished fourth in
the Belmont Stakes G1, he was still named Horse of the Year. A world traveller
at 4, he was second in the San Antonio Stakes G2 and Dubai World Cup G1, then
sent to England but never started there and returned home, taking the rest of
the year off. At 5, the champ was back and named Horse of the Year after a thrilling
win the Dubai World Cup G1 and four other stakes. Brilliant, game and versatile,
Chrome earned his public adoration but the breeding game is another matter. Retired
to Taylor Made Farm at $40,000, his first yearlings were not the darlings of the
sale ring, averaging just $89,500. Now he's in Japan. He could have a lot of 2-year-old
winners this year since he was a good juvenile himself, but his rags-to-riches
pedigree makes it hard for this pedigree geek to jump on board the train for him
as a sire, although I wish him the best just the same. Nyquist is from
the spectacular first crop by Uncle Mo and is out of the mare Seeking Gabriel
by Forestry. A $180,000 weanling, $230,000 yearling and $400,000 2-year-old, he
is a slightly smaller version of his sire. He was the Champion 2-Year-Old Male
of his crop with wins including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile G1. He continued this
domination right through the Florida Derby G1 and Kentucky Derby G1 but tailed
off after this and was retired at the end of the season to Darley for $40,000.
He covered slightly more mares in his third year than his first, which means breeders
liked his foals. His first yearlings averaged $226,625, the highest in this class,
which held up his 2020 stud fee at $40,000. The market loves him. He was the Champion
at 2 and is by an exceptional stallion. His first crop should come out running
this year. Exaggerator is by the mighty Curlin out of a stakes-placed
half-sister to Embur's Song, by Vindication, so there are no pedigree holes here.
He was a multiple Graded stakes winner at 2, which is unusual for a Curlin, since
they're usually later-maturing. He was one of the best 3-year-olds, winning the
Santa Anita Derby G1, running second to Nyquist in the Kentucky Derby G1, then
winning the Preakness G1 and Haskell Invitational G1. When he retired to WinStar
Farm he was a lanky, spare-looking horse but has grown into himself. He initially
stood at $30,000 and now stands for $20,000, a drop which is not unusual for a
fourth-year horse. His first yearlings averaged $83,500, which is more in line
with a later-maturing horse, but don't forget his excellent 2-year-old form which
gives him license to sire good juveniles this year. His progeny should improve
with age, though. Air Force Blue is by War Front out of stakes-placed
Chatham by Maria's Mon. He was one of his sire's typical early representatives,
being the Champion at 2 in Europe. He continued at 3, winning the Irish 2,000
Guineas G1 and sprint prizes, the Darley Cup G1 and Phoenix Sprint G1. He retired
to stud at Ashford where he stood alongside another War Front, Declaration of
War. This one is a bigger horse than his sire, built along speed lines, low to
the ground with a big butt. His first stud fee was $25,000 but that has dropped
to $10,000 which is not unusual drop for an Ashford sire at this stage. His first
yearlings averaged $85,023, a nice multiple on his stud fee. Being an exceptional
2-year-old himself, he should get a lot of juvenile winners, but they'll probably
prefer the grass, which might make it hard for him to get to the top of the freshman
sire list. The brilliant Runhappy is by Super Saver out of Bella Jolie
by Broken Vow. He was from the exciting first crop of Kentucky Derby winner Super
Saver, and a $200,000 yearling. He didn't make it to the races at 2 until late
December at Turfway but it was a spectacular score. He had a 6-race win streak
over the summer of his 3-year-old year including the King's Bishop G1, Phoenix
Stakes G3, Breeders' Cup Sprint G1 and Malibu Stakes G1 and was named Champion
Sprinter. He made only 2 starts at 4 without a win and retired to stud at Claiborne
Farm. He's a good looking horse standing 16.2 hands. His fee started at $25,000
and remains there, especially after his first yearlings averaged a very strong
$222,190, second highest freshman behind Nyquist and over Frosted. Although not
precocious he possesses the speed that could generate a lot of 2-year-old winners.
Super Saver's sale to Turkey isn't a vote of confidence but buyers seem to like
the Runhappys, so he could prove the doubters like me to be wrong. Flintshire
(GB) is by the top European sire Dansili and out of French Group 2 winner
Dance Routine by Sadler's Wells. He was unraced at 2, but won Group/Grade 1 races
every year he raced through the age of 6. He won the Grand Prix de Paris at 3,
the Hong Kong Vase at 4, and Sword Dancer Stakes at 5 and 6 in the U.S.. He was
also second in 7 other Group/Grade 1 races including the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
(twice) and Breeders' Cup Turf (twice). He was the American Champion Turf Male
his last year racing. This is a turf stayer through and through, with all but
one of his G1 wins at 12 furlongs. As such, it's surprising he went to stud in
Kentucky instead of Europe since the market here is pretty hard on this kind.
As evidence, his first yearlings averaged only $37,905, and his stud fee dropped
from $20,000 to $15,000 in 2020. He bred 121 his first year but 69 in his third
year, showing how the market can beat up a stallion like this. A big (16.1h),
leggy horse, he's built more for a route of ground, so needs mares with more speed.
He's uniquely inbred to Northern Dancer (4x6x3x6) and to his grandson Ile de Bourbon
(4x4). Being unraced at 2 himself, I don't expect him to figure among the leading
freshman sires this year, and expect his runners to do better with time, distance,
and turf surfaces. Mshawish is by Medaglia d'Oro out of Thunder Bayou
by Thunder Gulch. He was unplaced in 1 start at 2 in France. At 3, he won a Listed
stakes there and wintered in Dubai where he scored the Zabeel Mile G2 at 4. Sent
to the U.S. later that year, he won the Listed El Prado Stakes in December. At
5 he won the Ft. Lauderdale Stakes G2 and Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap G1. At
6, and moved to dirt, he won the Hal's Hope Stakes G3 and Donn Handicap G1. He
was injured that spring and retired after showing his versatility on dirt and
turf, winning from 7.5 to 9 furlongs. A good-looking, muscular horse like many
Medaglia d'Oros, he differs in being on the small side (like Thunder Gulch), standing
15.3 hands. He was a $25,000 weanling and $10,000 yearling suggest his size played
a factor perhaps along with other issues, but a $219,708 Arquana 2-Year-Old sale
price shows more forgiveness in the European market. His first yearlings averaged
$38,790, so whatever his own commercial issues were, they may have affected his
progeny as well. He dropped from 117 mares in his first season to 68 in his third
year and a halving of his stud fee from $20,000 to $10,000, illustrating how breeders
flee from a third year stallion with weak sales appeal. Like Flintshire, being
a later-maturing horse lowers expectations for his first crop to come out roaring
this year, and although he was a G1 winner on dirt, he has a perceived turf bias
which might limit their opportunity, too. Continuing the theme of later-maturing
turf stars, Big Blue Kitten is one of the best runners by Kitten's Joy,
and is out of Spent Gold by Unaccounted For. Unraced at 2, he won his second start
at 3, which set off a 5-race streak ending with a win in the National Racing Hall
of Fame Stakes G2. Graded stakes-placed at 4, he won the Sword Dancer Invitational
Stakes G2 and United Nations Stakes G1 at 5 and a restricted stakes at 6. At 7,
he won the Fort Marcy G3, Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1 and a second United Nations
Stakes G1, and was voted Champion Turf Male. Big Blue Kitten retired with 33 starts,
14 wins from 8 to 12 furlongs, all but 1 on turf (the other on all-weather). At
Calumet Farm he started at $15,000 which has predictably dropped to $10,000 in
2020. A leggy, good-bodied horse, he stands 16.1 hands, but his first yearlings
were not in great demand, averaging $12,425, lower than the fee that went into
them. (The market doesn't like the Kitten's Joys, either.) Another late- maturing
router, I don't expect a lot from his first crop of 2-year-olds, but look for
improvement as they age and tackle longer distances on turf. (continued in left
column under tables)
| My
picks for 2020 Leading Freshman Sire | Nyquist
(by Uncle Mo) | Runhappy (by Super Saver) | Upstart
(by Flatter) | Brody's Cause (by Giant's Causeway) | Outwork
(by Uncle Mo) |
| | Kentucky
sires with first runners (2yos) in 2020 | 2017
stud fee | 2017 mares bred | 2018 mares bred | 2019
mares bred | 2019 yrlg ave | 2020
fee | Frosted (16.1 1/2h)
| $50,000 | 156 | 152 | 144 | $222,079 | $40,000 | California
Chrome (16.0 1/2h) | $40,000 | 145 | 133 | 143 | $89,500 | in
Japan | Nyquist (16.1 1/2h) | $40,000 | 153 | 153 | 156 | $226,625 | $40,000 | Exaggerator (16.1h) | $30,000 | 162 | 163 | 129 | $83,500 | $20,000 | Air
Force Blue (16.1 1/2h) | $25,000 | 153 | 106 |
90 | $85,023 | $15,000 | Runhappy
(16.2h) | $25,000 | 127 | 128 | 127 | $222,190 | $25,000 | Flintshire
(GB) (16.1h) | $20,000 | 121 | 89 | 69 | $37,905 | $15,000 | Mshawish (15.3h) | $20,000 | 117 | 73 | 68 | $38,790 | $10,000 | Big
Blue Kitten (16.1h) | $15,000 | 93 | 68 | 28 | $12,425 | $10,000 | Not
This Time (16.2h) | $15,000 | 145 | 129 | 87 | $63,746 | $12,500 | Outwork (17.0h) | $15,000 | 168 | 137 | 102 | $81,014 | $15,000 | Vancouver
(AUS) (16.2h) | $15,000 | 166 | 82 | -- | $27,909 | in
Australia | Brody's Cause (16.0h) | $12,500 | 101 | 110 | 63 | $45,550 | $ 7,500 | Tamarkuz (16.0
1/4h) | $12,500 | 38 | 42 | 57 | $65,474 | $10,000 | Tourist (16.1h) | $12,500 | 134 | 102 | 70 | $26,399 | $ 7,500 | Anchor
Down (16.1h) | $10,000 | 80 |
53 | 35 | $44,079 | $ 7,500 | Speightster (16.1h) | $10,000 | 174 | 150 | 124 | $61,320 | $10,000 | Upstart (16.2h) | $10,000 | 146 | 86 | 38 | $61,527 | $10,000 | Ironicus (16.0h) | $
7,500 | 43 | 41 | 23 | $17,127 | $ 5,000 | Texas
Red (16.3h) | $ 7,500 | 81 |
67 | 40 | $11,005 | $10,000 | Hit
It A Bomb (16.0h) | $ 7,000 | 48 | 49 | 20 | $22,864
| $ 5,000 | Protonico
(15.3h) | $
6,500 | 34 | 49 | 22 | $6,100
| $ 5,000 | Cinco
Charlie (16.0 1/2h) | $
5,000 | 98 | 62 | 77 | $20,113
| $ 5,000 | Firing
Line (16.2h) | $ 5,000 | 73 | 60 | 45 | $30,652
| $ 5,000 | Optimizer (
) | $ 5,000 | 32 | 28 | 21 | $4,691
| $ 5,000 | Slumber
(GB) ( ) | $ 5,000 | 21 | 5 | 4 | $3,500
| $ 5,000 |
|
(continued from right column) Not This Time
is by Giant's Causeway out of Grade 3 winner Miss Macy Sue by Trippi. He only
raced at 2, winning half of his 4 starts including his maiden and the Iroquois
Stakes G3, and second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile G1 by a neck to Classic Empire.
He exited that race with a "soft tissue injury" in his right front and
instead of racing at 3, he retired to stud at Taylor Made at $15,000. Standing
16.2 hands, he's a big, muscular horse whose first yearlings averaged a healthy
$63,746. As a precocious horse who retired early, trainers should be cautious
about pushing his babies too soon, but he's the type to get a lot of 2-year-old
runners. It doesn't hurt that he's a half-brother to the brilliant Liam's Map,
one of the top freshman sires of last year. My only caution, besides the soundness
issue, is the inconsistent record of sons of Giant's Causeway as stallions in
Kentucky. Outwork was Uncle Mo's first winner in his only start at
2 at Keeneland April. He was second in the Tampa Bay Derby then won a muddy Wood
Memorial G1 before running off the board in the Kentucky Derby G1, which proved
to be his last start. His dam Nonna Mia was G1-placed at 2 and is by Empire Maker.
He started at $15,000 at WinStar and his first yearlings averaged $81,014 which
makes breeders happy. Outwork is a big (17h), leggy horse, even more so than his
sire, and since he only made 5 starts, a smaller, sound mare would be best for
him, and with that correction, he's likely to get a lot of early 2-year-olds since
it obviously runs in the family. Vancouver (AUS) is by Medaglia
d'Oro out of stakes-placed Skates by Danehill. He was the Champion 2-Year-Old
in Australia but only made 1 start at 3 because he was targeted for the Royal
Ascot meet but got sick instead, and was retired early. A big, strong, wow-looking
horse entering stud at Ashford for $15,000, unfortunately he wasn't the most fertile
and didn't make a third Kentucky season. His first yearlings averaged a dismal
$27,909. His first crop racing will be smaller than most but don't be surprised
if he gets some good juveniles since he was a good one himself, even if they might
have a turf bias. Brody's Cause has a profile a lot like Not This
Time, being a top class dirt 2-year-old by Giant's Causeway. His dam is stakes-placed
Sweet Breanna by the well-bred Sahm. He won the Breeders' Futurity G1 and was
third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile G1 behind Nyquist. At 3, he won the Blue Grass
Stakes G1 but was unplaced in the Kentucky Derby G1 and Belmont Stakes G1. His
starting fee at Spendthrift was $12,500 where he got 101 mares. His first yearlings
averaged a moderate $45,550 and his fee dropped to $7,500 as a result. He's a
sharp looking, attractive horse standing 16.0 hands which is usually not big enough
for a commercial sire but he's got every right to get a lot of 2-year-old runners,
so don't forget his name just yet. Tamarkuz is by Speightstown out
of a half-sister to Stay Thirsty, by Lemon Drop Kid, so he has all the pedigree
you want. He was a $325,000 yearling who became a winner at 2 in England on all-weather,
and he moved up when moved to dirt late in his career. At 5 he won the Godolphin
Mile and 2 other Group stakes. At 6 he won the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile G1 (beating
Gun Runner) and was second in the Forego Stakes G1 and Kelso Handicap G2. Retired
to Shadwell for $12,500 he covered only 38 mares his first year, but his first
yearlings averaged a strong $65,474, so he's worth a second look. He's just over
16.0 hands, so just a little bigger than Speightstown, and is a well-made, muscular
horse. Although his race record suggests later maturity, keep in mind he improved
on dirt, so with his speed and type, he should get good 2-year-olds, although
there might not be enough in training to move him up the list. With Speightstown
as a developing sire of sires, I think this is a horse who has been overlooked
and at $10,000, could be good value. A top turf miler, Tourist is
by Tiznow out of an Unbridled's Song mare, He was placed at 2 and at 3 proved
a good turf router, winning the Sir Cat Stakes (8f.) and second in the Secretariat
Stakes G1 (10f.). At 4 he won another stakes at a mile on turf and was second
in the Shadwell Turf Mile G1. At 5 he won the Fourstardave Stakes G1 and Breeders
Cup Mile G1, beating the great Tepin and setting a new stakes record (1:31.71).
Although bred to be a tall, lanky drink of water, he is "only" 16.1
hands, and a blocky, handsome type, built long and low. He started at $12,500
at WinStar and covered 134 mares. His first yearlings disappointed averaging $26,399,
so his fee was reduced to $7,500. Not being particularly precocious, I don't look
for him to be among the top freshman sires, and expect a turf bias. Anchor
Down is by the great Tapit and out of G3 winner Successful Outlook by Orientate.
He was unraced at 2, but won his first 2 starts at 3 at Gulfstream before going
on the shelf. At 4, he won once in 7 starts but finally put it together at 5,
winning the Westchester Stakes G3 and Kelso Handicap G2 (in 1:32.9), and was second
to Frosted in the Met Mile. A lighter-framed Tapit, he stands 16.1 hands, so a
stockier mare would be suitable. Entering stud at Gainesway at $10,000, his first
yearlings averaged $44,079. Appearing to be a later-maturing type, I wouldn't
expect a lot of early runners. Speightster is by Speightstown out
of Dance Swiftly by Danzig whose dam is the Champion Canadian filly Classy 'n
Smart, from a very deep family. Unraced at 2, he broke his maiden at 3 at Keeneland
in April, won an allowance at Belmont, then the Dwyer Stakes G3 at a mile, all
his starts that year. After having an ankle chip removed, he was unplaced in his
only start at 4. Speightster is very much in the muscular mold of his sire, although
bigger, at 16.1 hands. He went to stud at WinStar for $10,000 and covered 174
mares. His first yearlings sold very well for the fee, averaging $61,320. Being
so late to the races, and with his size, his progeny might be later maturing as
well, but the Speighstown speed could create a lot of 2 year old winners. I'm
not sure what to think about this one. Upstart is by Flatter out
of Party Silks by Touch Gold. He's one of the rare ones in this group who was
a stakes winner at 2, 3 and 4. A high class 2-year-old he won the restricted Funny
Cide Stakes, was second in the Champagne Stakes G1 and third in the Breeders'
Cup Juvenile G1. At 3 he won the Holy Bull Stakes G2 beating Frosted and was second
in the Fountain of Youth Stakes G2 and Florida Derby G1 (DQd from first). At 4
he won the Razorback Handicap G3. He went to stud at Airdrie for $10,000 and covered
146 mares. His first yearlings averaged a happy $61,527, and although he only
covered 38 mares last year, this should turn around. A big (16.2h), handsome individual,
he shows some of the Buckpasser influence coming through Touch Gold. Since Upstart
was a very high class uvenile, he should get his fair share of good 2-year-olds.
I'm cutting off my evaluations with stallions who entered stud in 2017
at the $10,000 stud fee or higher. Below that, they're wildcards, except for Texas
Red (by Afleet Alex), who won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile G1, so should get a few
juvenile winners. My choices of this group are listed above. I think Nyquist
is a slam dunk. Runhappy has proven very popular and although I'm not convinced
he'll be a great sire himself, his first crop could come out running. Upstart
has a lot of qualifications to be a good sire, even if Flatter hasn't broken through
as a sire of sires yet. Brody's Cause was a very good juvenile, as was Outwork. Copyright
by Anne Peters 2020 |