Anne Peters
 

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Anne Peters
P.O. Box 3926
Midway, KY 40347
(859) 846 - 9794
pedgoddess
@yahoo.com

 

 


Freshman Sires of 2020                                        (Copyright by Anne Peters 2020)
(March 28, 2020)

2020 introduces the first runners by stallions who entered stud in 2017. The Kentucky stallions are not as glamorous as the 2016 gang headed up by American Pharoah and Honor Code, or the 2018 class led by Arrogate and Gun Runner. Still, the star of this stallion crop is a very good horse indeed: Frosted, who entered stud at Darley at a fee of $50,000. California Chrome and Nyquist followed, both at $40,000. Frosted and Nyquist both stand for $40,000 in 2020 and California Chrome was sold to stand in Japan this year, much to the outrage of his huge fan base. Was the sale premature? We'll find out soon.

The Kentucky freshman sire roster is listed to the right and a few observations are worth making before we get into individual assesments. Take a quick look at the number of mares bred, which is often more a function of what farm the horse stands at rather than his particular merits. Because Darley tends to limit their stallions' books to about 150 mares, Frosted covered 156, and studmate Nyquist had 153, while less expensive stallions at other farms covered more mares, like Exaggerator (162 mares), Outwork (168), Vancouver (166) and the leader by this number, Speightster (174). Exaggerator, Outwork and Speightster stand at WinStar which doesn't limit stallion books, nor does Vancouver's home at Coolmore's Ashford Stud. These larger books will translate into more 2-year-olds racing this year which should work in their favor, but only if those 2-year-olds win races!

Two years later, in 2019, the numbers shifted a bit, as they always do for third-year sires competing with the younger sires and more proven sires. Nyquist actually gained 3 mares, getting 156 mares, suggesting that his foals were well received, and reflected in his yearling average of $226,625, the highest for this group last year. Frosted by comparison got 144 mares in his third year which is still good, and similarly his yearlings averaged slightly less at $222,079, but still an excellent outcome. Speightster covered significantly fewer mares but got a solid book of 124, and his yearlings averaged a strong $61,320 off a $10,000 fee. Surprisingly, one stallion in this class got more mares in 2019 than his first year, and that was Tamarkuz, who covered a disappointing 38 mares his first season. His foals must have impressed because he served 57 mares in 2019 with a profitable yearling average of $65,474 off a $12,500 fee.

Frosted is a grey son of the fantastic sire Tapit out of the durable Grade 2 turf mare Fast Cookie by Deputy Minister. A Darley homebred, he was a later-developing juvenile, breaking his maiden at a mile and then second in the Remsen Stakes G1. He was one of the better colts of his year at 3 although racing in the shadow of American Pharoah. He won the Wood Memorial G1 and Pennsylvania Derby G2 and ran second to Pharoah in the Belmont G1, ahead of Keen Ice, among other top placings. At 4, Frosted threw in a couple really brilliant performances in the Met Mile G1 (setting a new stakes record of 1:32.73) by 14 1/4 lengths, and a wire-to-wire score in the Whitney Stakes-G1. Frosted is a striking individual, a big, strong horse with a lot of class. His first yearlings sold well ($222,079 average) so it looks like he's throwing good-looking individuals like himself. Although a little later-maturing, it wouldn't be surprising to see him get good juveniles with speedier mares.

California Chrome is bred less than fashionably, being by the modestly successful California sire Lucky Pulpit (by Pulpit) and out of the winning mare Love The Chase by the good Maryland-based sire Not For Love. Apparently he doesn't care because the flashy chestnut was a leading 2-year-old in California then breezed magnificently through the Cali Derby preps, and convincing wins in the Kentucky Derby G1 and Preakness G1. Although he finished fourth in the Belmont Stakes G1, he was still named Horse of the Year. A world traveller at 4, he was second in the San Antonio Stakes G2 and Dubai World Cup G1, then sent to England but never started there and returned home, taking the rest of the year off. At 5, the champ was back and named Horse of the Year after a thrilling win the Dubai World Cup G1 and four other stakes. Brilliant, game and versatile, Chrome earned his public adoration but the breeding game is another matter. Retired to Taylor Made Farm at $40,000, his first yearlings were not the darlings of the sale ring, averaging just $89,500. Now he's in Japan. He could have a lot of 2-year-old winners this year since he was a good juvenile himself, but his rags-to-riches pedigree makes it hard for this pedigree geek to jump on board the train for him as a sire, although I wish him the best just the same.

Nyquist is from the spectacular first crop by Uncle Mo and is out of the mare Seeking Gabriel by Forestry. A $180,000 weanling, $230,000 yearling and $400,000 2-year-old, he is a slightly smaller version of his sire. He was the Champion 2-Year-Old Male of his crop with wins including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile G1. He continued this domination right through the Florida Derby G1 and Kentucky Derby G1 but tailed off after this and was retired at the end of the season to Darley for $40,000. He covered slightly more mares in his third year than his first, which means breeders liked his foals. His first yearlings averaged $226,625, the highest in this class, which held up his 2020 stud fee at $40,000. The market loves him. He was the Champion at 2 and is by an exceptional stallion. His first crop should come out running this year.

Exaggerator is by the mighty Curlin out of a stakes-placed half-sister to Embur's Song, by Vindication, so there are no pedigree holes here. He was a multiple Graded stakes winner at 2, which is unusual for a Curlin, since they're usually later-maturing. He was one of the best 3-year-olds, winning the Santa Anita Derby G1, running second to Nyquist in the Kentucky Derby G1, then winning the Preakness G1 and Haskell Invitational G1. When he retired to WinStar Farm he was a lanky, spare-looking horse but has grown into himself. He initially stood at $30,000 and now stands for $20,000, a drop which is not unusual for a fourth-year horse. His first yearlings averaged $83,500, which is more in line with a later-maturing horse, but don't forget his excellent 2-year-old form which gives him license to sire good juveniles this year. His progeny should improve with age, though.

Air Force Blue is by War Front out of stakes-placed Chatham by Maria's Mon. He was one of his sire's typical early representatives, being the Champion at 2 in Europe. He continued at 3, winning the Irish 2,000 Guineas G1 and sprint prizes, the Darley Cup G1 and Phoenix Sprint G1. He retired to stud at Ashford where he stood alongside another War Front, Declaration of War. This one is a bigger horse than his sire, built along speed lines, low to the ground with a big butt. His first stud fee was $25,000 but that has dropped to $10,000 which is not unusual drop for an Ashford sire at this stage. His first yearlings averaged $85,023, a nice multiple on his stud fee. Being an exceptional 2-year-old himself, he should get a lot of juvenile winners, but they'll probably prefer the grass, which might make it hard for him to get to the top of the freshman sire list.

The brilliant Runhappy is by Super Saver out of Bella Jolie by Broken Vow. He was from the exciting first crop of Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, and a $200,000 yearling. He didn't make it to the races at 2 until late December at Turfway but it was a spectacular score. He had a 6-race win streak over the summer of his 3-year-old year including the King's Bishop G1, Phoenix Stakes G3, Breeders' Cup Sprint G1 and Malibu Stakes G1 and was named Champion Sprinter. He made only 2 starts at 4 without a win and retired to stud at Claiborne Farm. He's a good looking horse standing 16.2 hands. His fee started at $25,000 and remains there, especially after his first yearlings averaged a very strong $222,190, second highest freshman behind Nyquist and over Frosted. Although not precocious he possesses the speed that could generate a lot of 2-year-old winners. Super Saver's sale to Turkey isn't a vote of confidence but buyers seem to like the Runhappys, so he could prove the doubters like me to be wrong.

Flintshire (GB) is by the top European sire Dansili and out of French Group 2 winner Dance Routine by Sadler's Wells. He was unraced at 2, but won Group/Grade 1 races every year he raced through the age of 6. He won the Grand Prix de Paris at 3, the Hong Kong Vase at 4, and Sword Dancer Stakes at 5 and 6 in the U.S.. He was also second in 7 other Group/Grade 1 races including the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (twice) and Breeders' Cup Turf (twice). He was the American Champion Turf Male his last year racing. This is a turf stayer through and through, with all but one of his G1 wins at 12 furlongs. As such, it's surprising he went to stud in Kentucky instead of Europe since the market here is pretty hard on this kind. As evidence, his first yearlings averaged only $37,905, and his stud fee dropped from $20,000 to $15,000 in 2020. He bred 121 his first year but 69 in his third year, showing how the market can beat up a stallion like this. A big (16.1h), leggy horse, he's built more for a route of ground, so needs mares with more speed. He's uniquely inbred to Northern Dancer (4x6x3x6) and to his grandson Ile de Bourbon (4x4). Being unraced at 2 himself, I don't expect him to figure among the leading freshman sires this year, and expect his runners to do better with time, distance, and turf surfaces.

Mshawish is by Medaglia d'Oro out of Thunder Bayou by Thunder Gulch. He was unplaced in 1 start at 2 in France. At 3, he won a Listed stakes there and wintered in Dubai where he scored the Zabeel Mile G2 at 4. Sent to the U.S. later that year, he won the Listed El Prado Stakes in December. At 5 he won the Ft. Lauderdale Stakes G2 and Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap G1. At 6, and moved to dirt, he won the Hal's Hope Stakes G3 and Donn Handicap G1. He was injured that spring and retired after showing his versatility on dirt and turf, winning from 7.5 to 9 furlongs. A good-looking, muscular horse like many Medaglia d'Oros, he differs in being on the small side (like Thunder Gulch), standing 15.3 hands. He was a $25,000 weanling and $10,000 yearling suggest his size played a factor perhaps along with other issues, but a $219,708 Arquana 2-Year-Old sale price shows more forgiveness in the European market. His first yearlings averaged $38,790, so whatever his own commercial issues were, they may have affected his progeny as well. He dropped from 117 mares in his first season to 68 in his third year and a halving of his stud fee from $20,000 to $10,000, illustrating how breeders flee from a third year stallion with weak sales appeal. Like Flintshire, being a later-maturing horse lowers expectations for his first crop to come out roaring this year, and although he was a G1 winner on dirt, he has a perceived turf bias which might limit their opportunity, too.

Continuing the theme of later-maturing turf stars, Big Blue Kitten is one of the best runners by Kitten's Joy, and is out of Spent Gold by Unaccounted For. Unraced at 2, he won his second start at 3, which set off a 5-race streak ending with a win in the National Racing Hall of Fame Stakes G2. Graded stakes-placed at 4, he won the Sword Dancer Invitational Stakes G2 and United Nations Stakes G1 at 5 and a restricted stakes at 6. At 7, he won the Fort Marcy G3, Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1 and a second United Nations Stakes G1, and was voted Champion Turf Male. Big Blue Kitten retired with 33 starts, 14 wins from 8 to 12 furlongs, all but 1 on turf (the other on all-weather). At Calumet Farm he started at $15,000 which has predictably dropped to $10,000 in 2020. A leggy, good-bodied horse, he stands 16.1 hands, but his first yearlings were not in great demand, averaging $12,425, lower than the fee that went into them. (The market doesn't like the Kitten's Joys, either.) Another late- maturing router, I don't expect a lot from his first crop of 2-year-olds, but look for improvement as they age and tackle longer distances on turf.

(continued in left column under tables)

My picks for 2020 Leading Freshman Sire
Nyquist (by Uncle Mo)
Runhappy (by Super Saver)
Upstart (by Flatter)
Brody's Cause (by Giant's Causeway)
Outwork (by Uncle Mo)
 
Kentucky sires with first runners (2yos) in 2020
2017 stud fee
2017
mares
bred
2018
mares
bred
2019
mares bred
2019
yrlg
ave
2020 fee
Frosted
(16.1 1/2h)
$50,000
156
152
144
$222,079
$40,000
California Chrome
(16.0 1/2h)
$40,000
145
133
143
$89,500
in Japan
Nyquist
(16.1 1/2h)
$40,000
153
153
156
$226,625
$40,000
Exaggerator
(16.1h)
$30,000
162
163
129
$83,500
$20,000
Air Force Blue
(16.1 1/2h)
$25,000
153
106
  90
$85,023
$15,000
Runhappy
(16.2h)
$25,000
127
128
127
$222,190
$25,000
Flintshire (GB)
(16.1h)
$20,000
121
  89
  69
$37,905
$15,000
Mshawish
(15.3h)
$20,000
117
  73
  68
$38,790
$10,000
Big Blue Kitten
(16.1h)
$15,000
  93
  68
  28
$12,425
$10,000
Not This Time
(16.2h)
$15,000
145
129
  87
$63,746
$12,500
Outwork
(17.0h)
$15,000
168
137
102
$81,014
$15,000
Vancouver (AUS)
(16.2h)
$15,000
166
  82
--
$27,909
in Australia
Brody's Cause
(16.0h)
$12,500
101
110
  63
$45,550
$ 7,500
Tamarkuz
(16.0 1/4h)
$12,500
  38
  42
  57
$65,474
$10,000
Tourist
(16.1h)
$12,500
134
102
  70
$26,399
$ 7,500
Anchor Down
(16.1h)
$10,000
  80
  53
  35
$44,079
$ 7,500
Speightster
(16.1h)
$10,000
174
150
124
$61,320
$10,000
Upstart
(16.2h)
$10,000
146
  86
  38
$61,527
$10,000
Ironicus
(16.0h)
$ 7,500
  43
  41
  23
$17,127
$ 5,000
Texas Red
(16.3h)
$ 7,500
 81
 67
 40
$11,005
$10,000
Hit It A Bomb
(16.0h)
$ 7,000
48
49
20
$22,864
$ 5,000
Protonico
(15.3h)
$ 6,500
34
49
22
$6,100
$ 5,000
Cinco Charlie
(16.0 1/2h)
$ 5,000
98
62
77
$20,113
$ 5,000
Firing Line
(16.2h)
$ 5,000
73
60
45
$30,652
$ 5,000
Optimizer
( )
$ 5,000
32
28
21
$4,691
$ 5,000
Slumber (GB)
( )
$ 5,000
21
5
4
$3,500
$ 5,000

(continued from right column)

Not This Time is by Giant's Causeway out of Grade 3 winner Miss Macy Sue by Trippi. He only raced at 2, winning half of his 4 starts including his maiden and the Iroquois Stakes G3, and second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile G1 by a neck to Classic Empire. He exited that race with a "soft tissue injury" in his right front and instead of racing at 3, he retired to stud at Taylor Made at $15,000. Standing 16.2 hands, he's a big, muscular horse whose first yearlings averaged a healthy $63,746. As a precocious horse who retired early, trainers should be cautious about pushing his babies too soon, but he's the type to get a lot of 2-year-old runners. It doesn't hurt that he's a half-brother to the brilliant Liam's Map, one of the top freshman sires of last year. My only caution, besides the soundness issue, is the inconsistent record of sons of Giant's Causeway as stallions in Kentucky.

Outwork was Uncle Mo's first winner in his only start at 2 at Keeneland April. He was second in the Tampa Bay Derby then won a muddy Wood Memorial G1 before running off the board in the Kentucky Derby G1, which proved to be his last start. His dam Nonna Mia was G1-placed at 2 and is by Empire Maker. He started at $15,000 at WinStar and his first yearlings averaged $81,014 which makes breeders happy. Outwork is a big (17h), leggy horse, even more so than his sire, and since he only made 5 starts, a smaller, sound mare would be best for him, and with that correction, he's likely to get a lot of early 2-year-olds since it obviously runs in the family.

Vancouver (AUS) is by Medaglia d'Oro out of stakes-placed Skates by Danehill. He was the Champion 2-Year-Old in Australia but only made 1 start at 3 because he was targeted for the Royal Ascot meet but got sick instead, and was retired early. A big, strong, wow-looking horse entering stud at Ashford for $15,000, unfortunately he wasn't the most fertile and didn't make a third Kentucky season. His first yearlings averaged a dismal $27,909. His first crop racing will be smaller than most but don't be surprised if he gets some good juveniles since he was a good one himself, even if they might have a turf bias.

Brody's Cause has a profile a lot like Not This Time, being a top class dirt 2-year-old by Giant's Causeway. His dam is stakes-placed Sweet Breanna by the well-bred Sahm. He won the Breeders' Futurity G1 and was third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile G1 behind Nyquist. At 3, he won the Blue Grass Stakes G1 but was unplaced in the Kentucky Derby G1 and Belmont Stakes G1. His starting fee at Spendthrift was $12,500 where he got 101 mares. His first yearlings averaged a moderate $45,550 and his fee dropped to $7,500 as a result. He's a sharp looking, attractive horse standing 16.0 hands which is usually not big enough for a commercial sire but he's got every right to get a lot of 2-year-old runners, so don't forget his name just yet.

Tamarkuz is by Speightstown out of a half-sister to Stay Thirsty, by Lemon Drop Kid, so he has all the pedigree you want. He was a $325,000 yearling who became a winner at 2 in England on all-weather, and he moved up when moved to dirt late in his career. At 5 he won the Godolphin Mile and 2 other Group stakes. At 6 he won the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile G1 (beating Gun Runner) and was second in the Forego Stakes G1 and Kelso Handicap G2. Retired to Shadwell for $12,500 he covered only 38 mares his first year, but his first yearlings averaged a strong $65,474, so he's worth a second look. He's just over 16.0 hands, so just a little bigger than Speightstown, and is a well-made, muscular horse. Although his race record suggests later maturity, keep in mind he improved on dirt, so with his speed and type, he should get good 2-year-olds, although there might not be enough in training to move him up the list. With Speightstown as a developing sire of sires, I think this is a horse who has been overlooked and at $10,000, could be good value.

A top turf miler, Tourist is by Tiznow out of an Unbridled's Song mare, He was placed at 2 and at 3 proved a good turf router, winning the Sir Cat Stakes (8f.) and second in the Secretariat Stakes G1 (10f.). At 4 he won another stakes at a mile on turf and was second in the Shadwell Turf Mile G1. At 5 he won the Fourstardave Stakes G1 and Breeders Cup Mile G1, beating the great Tepin and setting a new stakes record (1:31.71). Although bred to be a tall, lanky drink of water, he is "only" 16.1 hands, and a blocky, handsome type, built long and low. He started at $12,500 at WinStar and covered 134 mares. His first yearlings disappointed averaging $26,399, so his fee was reduced to $7,500. Not being particularly precocious, I don't look for him to be among the top freshman sires, and expect a turf bias.

Anchor Down is by the great Tapit and out of G3 winner Successful Outlook by Orientate. He was unraced at 2, but won his first 2 starts at 3 at Gulfstream before going on the shelf. At 4, he won once in 7 starts but finally put it together at 5, winning the Westchester Stakes G3 and Kelso Handicap G2 (in 1:32.9), and was second to Frosted in the Met Mile. A lighter-framed Tapit, he stands 16.1 hands, so a stockier mare would be suitable. Entering stud at Gainesway at $10,000, his first yearlings averaged $44,079. Appearing to be a later-maturing type, I wouldn't expect a lot of early runners.

Speightster is by Speightstown out of Dance Swiftly by Danzig whose dam is the Champion Canadian filly Classy 'n Smart, from a very deep family. Unraced at 2, he broke his maiden at 3 at Keeneland in April, won an allowance at Belmont, then the Dwyer Stakes G3 at a mile, all his starts that year. After having an ankle chip removed, he was unplaced in his only start at 4. Speightster is very much in the muscular mold of his sire, although bigger, at 16.1 hands. He went to stud at WinStar for $10,000 and covered 174 mares. His first yearlings sold very well for the fee, averaging $61,320. Being so late to the races, and with his size, his progeny might be later maturing as well, but the Speighstown speed could create a lot of 2 year old winners. I'm not sure what to think about this one.

Upstart is by Flatter out of Party Silks by Touch Gold. He's one of the rare ones in this group who was a stakes winner at 2, 3 and 4. A high class 2-year-old he won the restricted Funny Cide Stakes, was second in the Champagne Stakes G1 and third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile G1. At 3 he won the Holy Bull Stakes G2 beating Frosted and was second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes G2 and Florida Derby G1 (DQd from first). At 4 he won the Razorback Handicap G3. He went to stud at Airdrie for $10,000 and covered 146 mares. His first yearlings averaged a happy $61,527, and although he only covered 38 mares last year, this should turn around. A big (16.2h), handsome individual, he shows some of the Buckpasser influence coming through Touch Gold. Since Upstart was a very high class uvenile, he should get his fair share of good 2-year-olds.

I'm cutting off my evaluations with stallions who entered stud in 2017 at the $10,000 stud fee or higher. Below that, they're wildcards, except for Texas Red (by Afleet Alex), who won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile G1, so should get a few juvenile winners.

My choices of this group are listed above. I think Nyquist is a slam dunk. Runhappy has proven very popular and although I'm not convinced he'll be a great sire himself, his first crop could come out running. Upstart has a lot of qualifications to be a good sire, even if Flatter hasn't broken through as a sire of sires yet. Brody's Cause was a very good juvenile, as was Outwork.

Copyright by Anne Peters 2020